Russia Rolls on with Mixed Signals from the West

     There are two sad facts and one interesting development.  What this makes for is United States and global policy towards Russia that is inconsistent.  It marks action towards Russia as perhaps symbolic and dedicated towards hurtful rhetoric as opposed to effective sanctions.

     One sad fact is that U.S. exports to Russia are increasing.  Even during the Ukraine crisis of 2014, they have increased.  Unfortunately, the number one export to Russia is exactly what they need.  Engines, pumps and machinery.  It would be great to say that the U.S. charges obscenely high prices, but even that would be of sorry consolation.  Russia gains a tremendous amount of currency from oil and arms sales.

     Another sad fact is that Russian arms exports are increasing.  Sales are approximately $5.6 billion for the first part of 2014.  Russia uses old Soviet designs and sells large amounts of arms to countries like India.  Questions may exist about the profitability of some industries.  However, even some immediate cash flow can help a business (or ultimately a country) today while it may not ultimately help that same entity tomorrow.

     The interesting development is that the U.S. has made John Tefft the next U.S. ambassador to Russia.  A career diplomat, he has at times served in Lithuania, as U.S. Ambassador in Georgia and as U.S Ambassador in Ukraine.  He was also Deputy Chief of Mission in Moscow.  This lesser known but important post is the person actually responsible for running all parts of the embassy.  Always respected, sometimes feared, they get things done and report as the #2 to the Ambassador.  It is also a welcome development that the U.S. will send someone that is critical of Russia.  However, protocol and diplomatic language have to be backed up with practical action to have long lasting substance.  Otherwise signals are mixed and relations are less than effective.